中国有多少高负债家庭？哪类人的财富最危险！
<div><section style="box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>著名杂志《财经》</strong>在近日出版的最新刊（2017年第29期 12月11日出版 总第516期）封面上题出这样一个怵目的事实：<strong>家庭债务“灰犀牛”隐现 </strong>——</section></section><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCrW7U5js4Th15CKjzrTxXvc7yjecw8rCu4CoiaETSZkaO5K1ZFianF5ew/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-type="gif" data-w="720" data-ratio="1.2930556"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">“ 中国居民存款总额虽大，但由于有大量民间借贷，只看银行贷款有可能低估家庭债务压力。<strong>要警惕居民债务上升对消费升级、金融安全及经济增长的负面作用。</strong>” </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin: 10px 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 3px; margin-bottom: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-radius: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(253, 198, 32); width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; font-size: 18px; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">01</p></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 88%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(255, 129, 36); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 0.25em; vertical-align: bottom; border-bottom-color: rgb(175, 175, 175); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dashed; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">中国家庭债务形势不容小觑</strong></p></section><section style="border-radius: 50%; width: 0.5em; height: 0.5em; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">2016到2017年，是中国人“财富大增值”的一年 —— 在这一年期里，只要买了房，财富就直线上升。一年间里，全国地产总价估计上涨了50%以上。也就意味着中国人的不动产财富总值增长了一半。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">可天下没有免费的午餐。财富盛宴的背后，是老百姓加足了杠杆，财富升值的背后，是锁定了未来25年以上的现金流。当财富盛宴到了最高潮的时候，人们突然发现——<strong>财富是增值了，但，钱，没有了</strong>。</p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCIFhNxiaMTMUYU1jXj5y9k6piawOYx4hW63FF9eT0QBG3Zra2icK4rDEWw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.55625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(0, 82, 255);">01. 近两年中国家庭债务杠杆率增速惊人</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">从统计数字来看，<strong>中国家庭部门贷款与居民储蓄存款的比率，已经由2007年的25％左右上升至目前的60％以上</strong>。而中国的家庭部门年度新增贷款与年度新增存款的比率，则由2005年至2007年期间的年均50％上升至2014年至2016年的97％。2016年更是一个转折点：中国当年出现了<strong>家庭存款增量逐渐低于家庭贷款增量</strong>的现象。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">中国社科院国家金融与发展实验室、国家资产负债表研究中心11月下旬发布《三季度中国去杠杆进程报告》显示，中国家庭杠杆率从二季度的47.4％上升到三季度的48.6％，合计今年前三个季度上升了3.8个百分点。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>我们花钱的速度比挣钱快得多，欠的债更是越来越多。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(0, 82, 255);"><strong>02. 中国家庭杠杆率存在严重的分布失衡</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">与美国、日本等国家家庭部门杠杆率相比较，中国家庭债务总量数据并不高，但是<strong>分布上却严重失衡</strong>。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnClJuxjWFIicDJORh6mK0iaibWxt7xDlkAflrP5gb5QC3tGevNUKILydicpg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.6578125"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">以家庭贷款与家庭存款衡量家庭部门杠杆率为例，<strong>截至今年9月，中国已有16个省市的杠杆率均超过50％</strong>，几乎接近全国省份的一半。<strong>家庭杠杆率最低的是山西省，仅有20％，而最高的福建省，家庭部门杠杆率达到105％。</strong><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">更为复杂的是：<strong>家庭债务的地区差异性与地区发展并没有必然关系。</strong>也就是说，不是越富的地方，家庭债务杠杆越大。这也意味着，<strong>伴随着经济的持续发展，居民收入的增加，并不一定能将这一问题自动逐步得到化解。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); background-color: rgb(0, 82, 255);">03. 被房地产“绑架”的中国家庭</span></strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">根据CEIC的数据，<strong>中国的家庭负债总量</strong>在2017年9月来到了5.9万亿美元（合约38.9万亿人民币），<strong>比起十年前，总额增加了十倍以上。</strong></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCyBnuH0GspPN9fiaXgo55BkKXHSEV60F4c5WuHdvmcrdt6sq4og7ziacQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.4765625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">而从居民家庭债务占中国GDP比例看，自2008年全球金融危机至今，十年来，居民债务从不到GDP的20%，上涨到45%以上。2010年后和2013年后的债务增多十分明显。<strong>这十年，普通家庭到底为什么欠了这么多的债呢？</strong>实际上，我们对比一下中国商品房的销售情况就不难了解。根据WIND的数据，近十年来中国商品房销售的两个高峰分别是在2008到2009年期间，以及2014到2015年期间。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">在2008到2009年期间，国家的降息周期和放松房贷的政策刺激了贷款购房量的增长；在2014年，中国又迎来降息周期，房市也放宽了二套房首付和放宽限购条件，造成第二波购房潮，也带来了房贷的总量增长。</p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnC3ViaZ2hOJfgo4IpJL7ENxU0nBbGGyVicAMDnm2rBb2bxd3srPHwVHFPA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.55625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">根据数据现显示，我国居民负债以消费性贷款为主，约占居民负债的2/3，大约是经营性负债的2倍。<strong>在消费性贷款中，以住房贷款为主的中长期贷款占了近80%，总量巨大。</strong>不动产财富增值的背后，是中国家庭负债率的大幅上升，中国老百姓享受的财富盛宴，也背负了最终的债务。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin: 10px 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 3px; margin-bottom: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-radius: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(253, 198, 32); width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; font-size: 18px; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">02</p></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 88%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(255, 129, 36); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 0.25em; vertical-align: bottom; border-bottom-color: rgb(175, 175, 175); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dashed; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">从小城市来到大城市买房的年轻人最危险</strong></p></section><section style="border-radius: 50%; width: 0.5em; height: 0.5em; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">当然，这个社会中并不是所有的人都存在相同的财务风险。根据个人持有房地产情况的不同，每个人的财务压力也不相同。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">房地产的价值为居民的融资和借贷提供了有效担保。而根据个人所持有的已还清贷款的房产数量和抵押价值，其偿债能力和撬动杠杆的能力会有很大区别。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">中国的住房拥有率是多少呢？不同机构的统计数据不尽相同，但大致而言，平均在70%以上是一个比较起码的数字。这就意味着未来的趋势是，<strong>房贷不会持续高速增加，但一二线的房价并不会显著下跌。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCuar9conte8EQb4qcGEtjFbUYAFo2MlomcodFnQGHavkX0KPqWbUjbQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.55625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">一些中青年在城市买房除了向银行贷款之外，通常还会向父母、亲戚、朋友借钱。现在城市中，<strong>尤其一二线城市中被迫以各种形式举债购房的中产阶级青年人，很可能是中国家庭中杠杆率最高的群体，未来这部分人发生家庭债务风险的可能性较大。</strong>高负债时代最先被拍死在沙滩上的，很可能就是这类人。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">中国的购房刚需往往并不是“购房”，而是“换房”，用三四线的房子换一二线的按揭。对这部分刚需来说，他们承受的房贷压力最大。不过，<strong>如果我们看一下中国长期的利率水平，整体而言其实是持续下降的。这个利率变化规律的背后，其实是整个人口结构的变化。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCTLjP4pPiaujqmHMzSEDO5cAIpapFO8JPEh3Hf7x3pEAHTh2EV33nP8g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.48125"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">理论上讲，不同年龄段的人，储蓄的能力和意愿不同，青年人一般处于负储蓄阶段，中年以后进入正储蓄阶段，因此在资金市场上，青年人多代表着资金需求多，中老年人多代表资金供给多。<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">因此当青年人口比例上升时，资金的需求就会增大，而当青年人口比例下降而中年人口上升，意味着供给增多但需求减少。根据供需关系，这时的利率就会下降。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">据统计，中国16到59岁就业人口在2015年已进入负增长，在2025年会达到负1.5%的比例，并在2032年达到历史最低值。而在这当中，35岁以内人口的规模下降速度会更快。<strong>也就是说，未来十五年内，中国的整体资金需求将低于供给，未来的平均利率也将会持续维持在低水平。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnC3mw4et16aMRUoUgJov9HoZNYRM5nyibvAXJiaSrYVv97NibDjXicnMO7yw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.55625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">这种较低的基本利率显然有利于居民消费类贷款的增加据统计。今年前三季度，居民短期贷款则出现快速增加，新增1.53万亿元，是去年同期的近3倍。但是，在名为消费的短期贷款当中有不少仍然是流向了房地产领域。<strong>换言之，平均利率的降低只是提供了一个新的渠道继续向年轻人加杠杆。</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">房贷利率的定向加息，居民其他消费的定向减息，这两支无形的手将伸进年轻人的钱包，共同增加杠杆，最终掏空其资产。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>那些在2015年后被迫以各种形式举债购房的年轻人，很可能是中国社会中杠杆率最高的群体。</strong>在高负债的时代，他们的财富最危险。一旦他们资不抵债、断供停贷，则会造成更大的系统性风险。</p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin: 10px 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 12%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; margin-top: 3px; margin-bottom: 3px; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-radius: 100%; border: 1px solid rgb(253, 198, 32); width: 1.8em; height: 1.8em; line-height: 1.8em; font-size: 18px; margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">03</p></section></section></section></section><section style="width: 88%; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0%; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="color: rgb(255, 129, 36); padding-right: 5px; padding-left: 5px; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 0.25em; vertical-align: bottom; border-bottom-color: rgb(175, 175, 175); border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: dashed; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">财富增值逻辑已变</strong></p></section><section style="border-radius: 50%; width: 0.5em; height: 0.5em; vertical-align: bottom; display: inline-block; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(253, 198, 32);"></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">以前是借“便宜”的贷款买入上涨的不动产资产，享受到财富增值的盛宴；但现在，钱的价格越来越贵，而资产价格过了高点，最先暴涨后的地区已经横盘多时，还在上涨的，也将会经历一次调整才能蓄能。<strong>财富增值逻辑显然已变，且越发复杂和不确定</strong>。</span><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">而对于投资者来说，债务杠杆能撬动财富，我们也知道债务杠杆断裂会引发无穷灾难。<strong>因此首先要清楚负债多少是合理的？</strong></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"> </p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong>负债的原则可基本概括为：债务收益要大于债务成本、债务杠杆足够长撬动的收益才会足够大、更关键的是债务杠杆不能断裂。</strong>而为保证衡量的确定性，更建议负债去投资，而不是负债去消费。而根据不同自然生命周期和财富周期，适应的债务和现金流也是不一样的。</p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">老年人的预期现金流会较少，所以负债就应该少；中年人的预期现金流稳定，所以负债就适当放大；年轻人的预期现金流会上升但波动也频繁，因此杠杆要灵活调整。<strong>赚钱能力不一样、预期收入不一样、风险承受能力不一样，其负债额度和负债率自然会有差别。</strong></p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="overflow: hidden !important; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box;"><img style="vertical-align: middle; box-sizing: border-box;" src="http://www.csdn123.net/mydata/showimg.php?url=http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/xQSVZ3OFRicxWEQYYiapkrNXTEJZxh4dnCPSe4q5yABx98XxicetibC9wClKhqjVTEymOVZIO7uK3svZjwt8hSoiayw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640" data-ratio="0.55625"></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: justify; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 14px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">而<strong>在投资理财方面，务必要做好资产配置及风险防控。</strong>分散投资能够帮助你抵御单一类别的风险，而跨市场跨币种的投资更能削弱系统性风险，合理的资产配置，将使你的家庭投资理财更为稳定和合理。</p><p style="white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box;">另一方面，背负着房贷和社会压力的年轻一族，大部分的收入来源还是在于工作，配置合理的保险产品将是必做之举。</p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section></section></section><section class="Powered-by-XIUMI V5" style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: right; line-height: 2; letter-spacing: 1px; padding-right: 25px; padding-left: 25px; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">来源：综合整理自网络</p></section></section></section></section></div>
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