5.5亿人的真相！中国的贫富差距超越你的想象
<p><img class="" data-copyright="0" data-ratio="0.5393053016453382" data-s="300,640" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FtR4oE3Sdg1UaFE5IKKdC6XdYMKNQeZmkaeFLcTmhTgxoVL3O9yV2mkmCJVYttY0IFtRsRWhuD8O0iaic5YibJ8Bkg%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="547" style=""></p><blockquote style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);line-height: 1.75em;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">◎智谷趋势（ID：zgtrend）</span><span style="max-width: 100%;text-decoration: inherit;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: 微软雅黑;line-height: 23.2727px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"> | 路口大爷</span></span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中等收入陷阱就摆在中国面前。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国戒不掉放水刺激经济的老路，过去几十年，它时不时就出现在我们的视线里。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">放水能暂时缓解问题，却无法一劳永逸；而且，世界经济史上的历次放水告诉我们，它有很大可能造成富者更富，穷者愈穷。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">没错，会让社会鸿沟更宽、更深。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="white-space: normal;max-width: 100%;font-size: 36px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">01</strong></strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">5.5亿人的真相</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的贫富差距超越你的想象。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">自2000年起，中国的基尼系数就超过0.4的警戒线并一路攀升，在缓慢下降了一段时间后，近三年又转而抬升。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><img class="" data-backh="292" data-backw="415" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqgxNujIL18CdFJp4JZq554mx1ZJLccFc3UpgoMb15QwnzSs5dXdaUsQ/?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.7039473684210527" data-type="png" data-w="760" height="292.15pt" width="415.05pt" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_png%2FT9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqgxNujIL18CdFJp4JZq554mx1ZJLccFc3UpgoMb15QwnzSs5dXdaUsQ%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Dpng" style="width: 645px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">2017年国家统计局数据显示，全国居民人均可支配收入25974元。国家发改委宏观研究院副院长马晓河2016年在一个论坛上说：“目前20%的低收入每月只有430多块钱，想消费却消费不了。还有20%的中低收入平均每月不到一千块钱。这两个群体加一块是5.5亿人。”</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">请注意，这个数据不是5百多万人，也不是5千多万人，而是5点多亿人。全中国接近一半的人口，每天的花费不得超过33块钱，否则就会破产睡天桥。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">这种强烈的震撼感来源于我们巨大的认知偏差，而认知偏差又是来源于每个人所处的圈子不同。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><img class="" data-backh="292" data-backw="415" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqUYQ7GnlJ4m1ibpptBtgmMNEIKIxXQhP9PNsE5Biac6nMRvYfqNA6csWQ/?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.70254110612855" data-type="png" data-w="669" height="291.55pt" width="415.0pt" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_png%2FT9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqUYQ7GnlJ4m1ibpptBtgmMNEIKIxXQhP9PNsE5Biac6nMRvYfqNA6csWQ%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Dpng" style="width: 645px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">来源：世界财富与收入数据库</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">前阵子，美团的王兴说有一句话，让城市精英和中产们集体觉得不可思议：</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">“中国太大了，大到你以为遍地都是985、211，其实本科生才占全国4%。”</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">事实上，4%这个数据还是被高估的呢。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">财经博主@林登万大人发了一个叫“你大概是看到了一个假中国”的系列数据，指出从1998年到2016年本科生以上毕业生为4756万，占13.83亿总人口比重为3.44%，再加上很多被重复计算的研究生以上毕业生，高学历人口事实上少得可怜。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">你在北上广深工作，周围都是985、211，但超过96%的中国人口却被高等教育拒之门外，更准确地说，是连门槛都没能够得着。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">有一个中国导演叫郑琼。她用6年时间跟拍了三个阶层孩子10年的人生轨迹，其中，甘肃的农村女孩马百娟的经历看得人心头沉甸甸。她的梦想是“长大要去北京上大学”，但她父亲的想法是“上学要打工，不上学也要打工，为什么要上学？”后来，她连小学都没上完，就嫁给了自己的表哥。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">当马百娟从小就过着面不够吃、水不够喝的生活时，北京女孩袁晗寒17岁辍学、3年游历欧洲各国、再考进德国的艺术高校，在她的认知里，“这个世界上，没有人会被饿死。”</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">我们生活在一个撕裂的社会，一个分化的国家。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 36px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">02</strong></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">大放水拉大贫富差距</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中等收入陷阱就摆在中国面前。贫富悬殊的问题不仅没有得到解决，反而是越拉越大。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">背后的“推手”，就包括我们熟悉的“大放水”。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">历史的经验表明，伴随货币宽松而来的，往往是一场“劫贫济富”的运动。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">这个结论我们可以在发达国家找到先例——</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">经过一轮量化宽松，股市、债市等资产的价格会被推高，但是馅饼不是每个人都能吃到的。道理很简单，富人阶层相比普通家庭拥有更多的股票和债券，可以对资产配置进行动态组合，只要一放水，他们就能从这些金融资产的强劲增长中获益，靠企业分红，接着利滚利产生强大的复利效应。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">拿英国来说，OECD的数据显示，在金融危机爆发之后，英国央行大放水，财富前 10%顶层人口收获55.8%的暴利，财富前5%的人收获68.2%的暴利，前1%的顶层人口，直接double收割129.9%的暴利。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><img class="" data-backh="185" data-backw="415" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqHBA8xL5T0XicFLyTGxULKL2I9NaLiavpo7XxlMLxDv1icKCOaIsb2ySKg/?wx_fmt=png" data-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqG8zU3C43Qs1U4mibnRgZ2OZPaQvJ2w6UHIpjo9ZXBHp8kV8NvQ1azcA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.4434931506849315" data-type="jpeg" data-w="584" height="184.2pt" width="415.25pt" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FT9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqG8zU3C43Qs1U4mibnRgZ2OZPaQvJ2w6UHIpjo9ZXBHp8kV8NvQ1azcA%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="width: 645px;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">而普通人的财富则直接被掠夺。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">最底层的人口由于没有资格配置股票债券，侥幸逃过这一劫，社会中层20%的人口，在金融危机之后的股市中财富负增长22.2%，再往上一个阶梯的20%人口则负增长26.2%。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">资产的最大配置住房，也在加剧着不平等。量化宽松、低利率减轻了金融危机对英美等国房地产市场的冲击，但却在年轻一代与老年一代、无房者与有房者中间用力划开一道深沟。购房成本越来越昂贵，多数年轻人被迫拿出大部分收入来还租，无法通过储蓄买房或其他方式来积累财富，而最早搭上车的富裕阶层，早已赚得盆满钵满。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">在中国，放水对社会结构的冲击一点儿也不比欧美乐观。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">先看一张过去十年各种资产价格的涨幅对比。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><img class="" data-backh="285" data-backw="415" data-before-oversubscription-url="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqrdCd3rMTjEk7Wkg9iaCxaIGUDafNljfXz50lPEjzvIjBXOXTFRoB15A/?wx_fmt=png" data-croporisrc="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/T9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqrdCd3rMTjEk7Wkg9iaCxaIGUDafNljfXz50lPEjzvIjBXOXTFRoB15A/?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="0" data-cropx2="636" data-cropy1="43.52851711026616" data-cropy2="437.7034220532319" data-ratio="0.6194968553459119" data-type="jpeg" data-w="636" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FT9UUVIKQ6ExdbCuSqicSN7vOWuOlt7vRqRtkibhNLT0qib65WA3QcfvU3Hibic3k0xC4muCggfSONk3TY5naOY6tcRQ%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;width: 526px !important;visibility: visible !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">放眼全国，楼市远远跑赢不长进的股市。如果你在一线城市投资楼市，获得的收益率可以达到至少200%以上，如果你再配置海外资产，收益率就更加可观。而这些富者之所以更富，很多都是因为大放水下加杠杆更容易，更轻松。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">反之，如果你在农村种地养猪，就会比在A股被割了几轮的韭菜还要惨。农民的财富并没有受益于三轮大放水。他们也没有机会了解如何平衡自己的资产组合，只能被动承受，穷者更穷。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">起点在很多时候注定是不平等的，而最为多数中国人所不能容忍的就是腐败和特权。在一些垄断性行业、被保护起来的国企，在大放水中牟利并非难事——社会流动性充沛，银行为完成任务求着风险较低的国企借钱，它们以8%利率拿过来，转手25%贷给中小企业，就能完美实现空手套白狼。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">张化桥在《影子银行内幕》这本书中写道，“滕先生”因为结交一家银行行长，不费吹灰之力就成为这家银行15家合作的PE公司之一。由于银行有6%左右的基准利率放贷限制，有放贷总额度限制，还必须受限于75%的存贷比，而通过滕先生这个过桥渠道，银行就能在表外扩张20%-25%利率的贷款。这样，“一个50亿-100亿的项目”，滕先生每年就能净赚1~2个百分点，也就是1个亿的利润。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">中国的利率自由化讨论了这么多年，利率依然维持在低位，结果就是剥削了普通储户，把财富转移补偿给了能从银行获得贷款的人。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">放水的残酷就在于，不是所有阶层都能受益于大放水，富人会，穷人不会。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">有多少轮放水，中国财富分配的不平等、阶层的固化，就会有多少轮加剧。</span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">当中产阶级活跃在社会主流话语圈中，生活永远都被房价、消费升级、学位等话题包围，似乎人人都是中产，却忽略了中国还有一个庞大的底层。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><br></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word !important;">而货币超发带来通货膨胀，收入分配制度的改革又不能及时跟上时，庞大的底层只会进一步扩大队伍。<span style="font-size: 15px;">我们能够避免财富掠夺这个大放水的副效应吗？</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;"><br></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 15px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">“房住不炒”的声音已经越来越坚定，未来楼市的路会比以往艰难得多，所以这一轮放水最大的受益者就不可能是楼市。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 15px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;word-wrap: break-word 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