美国为什么必须反全球化，《麦肯锡报告》道出玄机
<p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.665625" data-s="300,640" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2F60Yn8YyA81RCkQbzZwpbOveVZYkWo0Dyvun62vaRkJq7Eq2vILYIO0sKLrwBU1bDBmLvfY4PzrzP8FIJdvmFBA%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="960" style="width:100%;"></p><p style="white-space: normal;text-align: center;"><br></p><section style="white-space: normal;line-height: normal;"><br></section><p style="white-space: normal;line-height: 22.2609px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 14px;"><strong>作者：江平舟</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;line-height: 22.2609px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);font-size: 14px;"><strong>来源：微观系列（ID：weiguanx）</strong></span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;white-space:="" normal;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);box-sizing:="" border-box="" !important;overflow-wrap:="" break-word="" !important;"="">麦肯锡全球研究所，刚刚发布了最新报告<span style="color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong>《全球化大转型，贸易和价值链的未来在何方》。</strong></span>该报告详述了在未来30年，全球化趋势的五大改变。</p><section style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;white-space:="" normal;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);box-sizing:="" border-box="" !important;overflow-wrap:="" break-word="" !important;"=""><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们都知道，全世界最得益于全球化的就是中国，在过去20年里，中国依靠着全球化的浪潮实现经济高速发展，完全可以这么说，没有全球化浪潮，就不会有中国的经济浪潮。可全球化发展至今，也已然到了个瓶颈或者是十字路口，如果我们再按照过去的玩法去看待全球化的话，必然被时代淘汰。<span style="color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong>那么“新型全球化”到底发生了怎样的改变呢？</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="text-align: center; max-width: 100%; min-height: 1em; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.6388889" data-type="png" data-w="1080" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_png%2FH5ibckNttWGF1Gj3c36WdqneylMJmtenNonBXGwkg2MsAXeCskfaXSsSicp5VAHJsoPuAzmJEBWlK2r7lJ4C3u1w%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Dpng" style="width:100%;" helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" center;white-space:="" normal;box-sizing:="" border-box;font-size:="" 15px;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);vertical-align:="" middle;overflow-wrap:="" break-word="" !important;width:="" 541.438px="" !important;visibility:="" visible="" !important;"=""></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;width:100%;"><br></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">不管是在国家政策制定，还是企业的投资发展，抑或是个人的职业规划与财富投资，都有着重要的启示作用。当然看报告不会给你带来收益，也不会让人获得什么实质提升，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">但它能让你掌握“信息”，积累“趋势”。</strong></span>这世界没有比“信息”更宝贵的东西了。“信息”决定一个人的天花板能有多高，更决定他的突破空间能有多大，掌握信息越多的人，眼界越开阔的人，往往是越成功的人。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">麦肯锡是世界最知名的策略咨询公司，其提供的报告也被世界认为是最专业及最具有前瞻性的。报告《全球化大转型》中，其提到了<span style="color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong>五大转型方向：</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><section class="" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="7" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1、商品贸易日渐萎缩；</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2、服务贸易快速增加；<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">3、劳动力成本重要性持续下降；<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">4、创新研发越发重要；<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">5、区域贸易更加集中。</p></section></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全球化两大贸易板块，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一大商品贸易，一大服务贸易：</strong></span>汽车，玩具，打火机，大豆玉米葡萄酒，这种都属于商品贸易；专利，旅游，版权，这种都属于服务贸易。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">2017年，商品贸易总额17.3万亿美元，服务贸易总额5.1万亿美元。其中商品出口贸易却是在持续下滑的。从2007年到2017年，出口占全球化价值链总产出的比例，从28.1%下降到22.5%。而且虽然看起来“商贸”总额仍是“服贸”总额的3倍多，但“服贸”的成长速度，比“商贸”快60%，其中尤其是电信IT，商业服务，专利授权，旅游留学等服贸区块，每年都以200%，甚至300%的幅度在增加。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在全球化转型中，商贸的重要性日趋下滑，服贸的重要性日渐上升，这预示着制造业尤其是低端制造业将受到不得不转型的打击，另外这也体现在全球各区域的消费状况。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(192, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1995-2030：</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="1.3529412" data-type="jpeg" data-w="374" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVobzwlNuRqw0qnb9ibnetRM2hpoMKpIvpyaSTyr1GaqnQkAvFU41mV5dQ%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 374px !important;width:100%;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上图是发达经济体在全球化消费中的占比。</p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们可以看到一个趋势，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">就是在过去发达国家是全球化消费的大头，尤其是在1995-2007这个阶段。</strong></span>在这阶段里，全球发达经济体消费了81%的全球化商品，这也就是我们常说的，中国人给美国打工，给欧洲打工。中国那些没日没夜加班的血汗工厂，给全球发达国家提供了大量的廉价商品。这种情况就直接反应在图上。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">而等到2017-2030这个阶段，根据预估，发达国家消费全球化商品的规模，将从原先的81%，大幅降低到49%。</strong></span>其中美洲（图上深蓝色），就是美国和加拿大，其消费全球化产品的能力将从31%，降低到23%，代表着美国人的消费能力，将出现一定程度的下滑。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="1.3333333" data-type="jpeg" data-w="381" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVozmZjqoaCZH2ctKByGYF8sJFTRpyE5icUHaYnXh0Ky467LNwibiaQaKN1g%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;letter-spacing: 0.544px;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 381px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">而从世界发展中国家的角度来看，在未来2030年期间，全球化消费趋势是这样的：<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">欧洲发展中国家（淡蓝色），增加2%；</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">美洲发展中国家（深蓝色），维持不变；美洲发展中国家，基本就是南美洲的巴西，阿根廷，秘鲁等国家。这些国家主要依靠农业出口和矿物出口，加上是美国后花园，政局始终动动荡荡，所以在未来消费能力上不会有太大变化。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">亚洲发展中国家（黄色），增加2%；在评估和统计中，由于中国体量过大，所以被单独拉出来，这里的亚洲发展中国家，指的是东南亚国家，还有就是被评估报告遗忘了的印度……</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">最后就是被单独放出来的“特殊发展中国家”：中国（红色）部分。<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中国从2017-2030年间，全球化产品的消费能力将从10%上升到16%。这也从侧面印证了，中国从1995-2007的全球工厂，转型成为2017-2030的全球市场。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">如果我们将这两幅图放在一起看的话：</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.8276299" data-type="jpeg" data-w="789" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoZUp99T7MCr6uzhgZia3bm3updyyhZKjLArbogC6xGN4cldwBk9vTA5Q%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: center center;background-repeat: no-repeat;vertical-align: middle;height: 467.611px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">左边发达国家，右边发展中国家。美洲发达国（美国与加拿大），2030年全球化消费占比下降到23%；中国一国，2030年全球化消费占比上升到16%。这已经足以让西方国家警惕了。</p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">我们再来看一张图：</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5751138" data-type="jpeg" data-w="659" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVof0IQXwghuIwPt8VsC8xQm4GSQQEBGeOWpSYIdIjZiaLtF5Qhtp9GrEg%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;vertical-align: middle;height: 325.789px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">上图是全球各区域贸易联系，占世界总贸易量的比重：</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><ul class=" list-paddingleft-2" style="list-style-type: square;"><li><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">亚太地区贸易比重，52.4%；</p></li><li><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">欧洲28国贸易比重，63%；<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></li><li><section class="" data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="7" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">北美NAFTA贸易比重，40.7%。</p></section></section></li></ul><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这就能够解释为什么美国，在近几年要不断不断的去挑战世界贸易体制，要反全球化了。</strong></span>因为特朗普认为，全球化对美国是一个极其危险的东西。从经济贸易上来看，全球化让世界各区域间的关系越来越紧密，对美国的依赖度越来越低，尤其是在亚太地区和欧洲地区，这两块地区的区域经济占比已然远远超过美洲地区的影响力。那这样会形成一个什么严重局面呢？看下图：</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5912519" data-type="jpeg" data-w="663" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoN8GIDcialoeqRLK07LVGx1MN5PicaBCP3rB1TSJYauICfS6lI9rcnnHA%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;vertical-align: middle;height: 334.875px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">他会形成一个世界格局：从原本的以大西洋为分界构成的美洲板块与欧洲板块两大中心，慢慢演变成一个“世界岛”，即一整个完整的，以欧亚大陆板块中心的局面。简单讲就是，如果任由欧洲和亚太在经贸上不断加深紧密合作的话，那美国所在的美洲就会被“边缘化”。世界的核心将成为一个欧亚大陆的“世界岛”，而美国所在的美洲大陆，则成为一座孤悬于“世界岛”外的孤岛。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这是一个在未来30年，50年，最重大的世界格局变化。</strong></span>美国他看到了吗？美国当然看到了，而且看的很清楚。那美国的应对策略就是，或者说特朗普的应对策略就是：破坏你们的合作，趁着我美国影响力还是如此大的时候，竭尽全力的去破坏你们欧亚地区的经贸合作，以此来避免我美国在未来50年后，真的沦为世界孤岛，世界的中心真的从两大洋，转移到欧亚去。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">其实话说回来，美国无法打造自己的区域经济影响力，完全和他损人不利己的国策有关。世界两极，中美两大国都有众多邻国，中国对于周边国家的策略是投资投资再投资，把周边二流国家给拉起来，卖我中国的东西，输出我中国的价值。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">可美国呢？南美洲地方够大吧，土地肥沃，矿产丰富，可美国对待南美洲的策略就是两个字“打压”。美国是希望南美洲越乱越好，不断干扰甚至颠覆南美政权，最好南美洲全都陷入内战，这样对我美国就不会有任何威胁。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5912519" data-type="jpeg" data-w="663" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoicCswpo7GVkhY3ELickM6AKMx8Tt1WOQusDGzh7gfHgr5QTZCQrBOA6A%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;vertical-align: middle;height: 334.875px !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">正是基于中美两国在国策上的根本不同，才出现了上面这张图的，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">亚太地区贸易紧密度和影响力与日俱增。而美国所在的美洲大陆，其对全球的贸易影响力却持续下降。</strong></span>所以对美国来说，要继续维持核心和强权，要么改变敌对的国策，加强亲善南美国家；要么继续做流氓，破坏欧洲团结，破坏亚洲团结。显然美国是选择了后者。</p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">肢解欧盟，是美国的重要目标之一。离间中国周边国家，同样是美国的重要目标之一。就目前的情况来看，肢解欧盟，八字还真有了一撇。欧洲议会五月选举，或许会给美国人带来“惊喜”。那另一撇就看欧洲的民主力量，能否抵挡得过极右翼的民粹力量了。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(192, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">劳动力成本的重要性将大幅降低</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.7640449" data-type="jpeg" data-w="712" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoABL9rVL6praZw7kGMfOtmLcHwvwCIK3QZ6ndOXlQmicMicFiaZxOxnPhw%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在老旧的“全球化时代”，全球的贸易比较优势，主要来自于劳动力优势。这点我们应该都很清楚，中国版“世界工厂”的快速崛起，主要就是因为中国的劳动力优势，中国的劳动者不光多而且廉价，而且也非常的勤恳和吃苦耐劳。所以在短时间内，大量的发达国家将工厂从本国迁出，挪到中国来设厂，利用中国的低劳动力成本，大肆发财，而中国也靠着低劳动力成本，快速发展。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这是过去我们对“旧全球化”的认知，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">而今在“新全球化时代”，劳动力成本的优势将越来越低。</strong></span>其实我一直很反对一个看法，就是说中国的劳动力成本现在高了，中国制造业寒冬来了，外资把工厂从中国搬到成本更低的东南亚国家去了。但实际上， 劳动力在生产要素中占据的地位，越来越低。根据最新的统计数据现实，2017-2018年，只有18%的商品贸易，来自劳动力成本优势。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">特别是劳动密集型制造业，其占据全球贸易的份额从2005年的55%，快速下滑到2017年的43%，并且在未来，这个下滑趋势只会越来越大，绝不会再增长了。究其原因，是因为自动化和人工智能的大力发展，让一些梦想着模仿中国模式，靠着中国式劳动力成本崛起的东南亚国家，美梦破碎。在工业4.0时代，在一条生产线上，你根本不需要那么多人。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-backh="265" data-backw="563" data-before-oversubscription-url="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/DRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVo0wufWia3y5X3fNGZAicbHSicalgtUGdBS7e8ysFlKKLjibHqCXnRVt85Bw/?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.47" data-type="jpeg" data-w="600" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVo0wufWia3y5X3fNGZAicbHSicalgtUGdBS7e8ysFlKKLjibHqCXnRVt85Bw%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 677px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这也是未来“全球化2.0时代”的一个重要趋势转变方向，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">即全球化从劳动密集型制造业转变为资本密集型制造业。</strong></span>资本家需要的不是对于低廉劳工的投入，而是对于智能生产线的投入。这一全球化2.0趋势，势必将打碎一些低收入国家，靠着低工资来崛起的美梦。另外作为企业家，如果还在想着怎么将工厂搬到工人成本更便宜的地方去的话，那你这个企业在未来必定是难以生存的。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(192, 0, 0);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全球化2.0正在奖励舍得投入创新和研发的企业</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.58159" data-type="jpeg" data-w="956" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoljZBUZeCWjialuibHADdznfJdY6lrI5I5Yh7dm58tybHd3WaoFa3w0vg%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在全球化2.0时代，产业研发的资本支出持续上升。越是具有前瞻性的企业，越将大笔收入投入到创新和研发中。</strong></span>如上图机械和设备公司将36%的收入用于新产品和无形资产的研发（专利权）；而制药和医疗设备公司，更是将收入的80%用于创新和研发。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.9070946" data-type="jpeg" data-w="592" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoUULMIjWiaAjYibB7guHflbc6L4gFdF4ecmWMotpSNm2qkAWZyCVwtFsg%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);vertical-align: middle;background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235);background-size: 22px;background-position: 50% 50%;background-repeat: no-repeat;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">另外一大创新服务领域是在互联网服务，至于像传统的能源领域，比如那些以卖天然气和石油为生的国家，其产业创新能力很低。而通过不断的创新投入和研发，研发所带来的收入份额，也从2000年的5.4%，上升到13.1%。根据预估，到了2030年，研发所带来的收入效应，将超过30%。简单讲过去资本家以低劳力成本来获取暴利的时代已经过去了，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">未来资本家再想要获取暴利，那只有技术垄断，或创新革命两条路。</strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.56125" data-type="jpeg" data-w="800" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FDRW4sWLDG79d7mq52ck43y9icNNBBEwVoicice2F15Yicwy7y1qvYBcPa6vUSwicHoKKOPN6HHOW1biaYzRXrHCsfpibg%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;vertical-align: middle;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;visibility: visible !important;width: 565px !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">再来看全球化贸易的价值链结构。我们说一个产业或一项产品，其价值链主要分为三部分：<span style="color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong>上游研发；中游生产；下游销售。</strong></span><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全球化1.0时代，上游研发是被忽略的一部分。企业主要精力是放在多招廉价工人，多生产，或者是绞尽脑汁推出各种销售手段，来提高销量。而在全球化2.0时代，新的趋势是中游生产端的价值正在不断减弱，上游研发端的重要性则不断上升，下游的营销和售后服务，也有一定比例的上升。也就是说，一场重研发和营销，轻生产的价值链变革，已经开始。</p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全球化是一场与科技革命紧密相关的世界格局大战。目前来看主要的参赛三方，中国和欧盟是力主全球化的，而美国的特朗普政府则力反全球化。凭借着目前尚存的霸权优势，美国确实可以暂时挡住新全球化的浪潮，但只要西方还是资本主义信条，只要资本家务求不断逐利，那全球化2.0的趋势，就是势不可挡的。<br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">全球化1.0，已经给一大批发达国家的中低收入群体带来较为严重的生活危机，工作机会外流，降薪，失业，生活大不如前。而全球化2.0，从其呈现出来的面貌来看，将给更多的国家，不管你是发达国家，还是发展中国家的中低收入群体，带来更为严重的生存危机。<span style="color: rgb(151, 72, 6);"><strong>价值链中，过去占据重要位置的生产端将快速被智能生产取代。</strong></span></p></section></section></section><section powered-by="135编辑器" class="" style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><img class=" __bg_gif" data-ratio="0.56" data-type="gif" data-w="400" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_gif%2FH5ibckNttWGF1Gj3c36WdqneylMJmtenNcDhbAQXsTDYOgMpKnAPt5hOVgfpXY9icQ5svUBwpwQNS8so7x64MZ9Q%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Dgif" style="box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;font-size:="" 15px;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" center;white-space:="" normal;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);vertical-align:="" middle;overflow-wrap:="" break-word="" !important;width:="" 400px="" !important;visibility:="" visible="" !important;"=""></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" right;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);"="">格力无人工厂</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;font-size:="" 16px;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" right;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);"=""><br></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;font-size:="" 16px;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" right;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);"=""><img class=" __bg_gif" data-ratio="0.5625" data-type="gif" data-w="480" 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136);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" right;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);"="">大众无人工厂</span></strong></span></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><img class="" data-ratio="0.5743349" data-type="jpeg" data-w="639" src="https://lymx.com.cn/source/plugin/csdn123_news/display_picture.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fmmbiz_jpg%2FH5ibckNttWGF1Gj3c36WdqneylMJmtenNEK4QZ0UVmk3iaVA21dQbuWb4myrM99ia1iakFAUNRoicBpYXDciaibF5rnpQ%2F640%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;font-size:="" 15px;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" center;white-space:="" normal;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);vertical-align:="" middle;overflow-wrap:="" break-word="" !important;width:="" 639px="" !important;visibility:="" visible="" !important;"=""></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, " helvetica="" neue",="" "pingfang="" sc",="" "hiragino="" sans="" gb",="" "microsoft="" yahei="" ui",="" yahei",="" arial,="" sans-serif;letter-spacing:="" 0.544px;text-align:="" right;background-color:="" rgb(255,="" 255,="" 255);"="">盛虹无人化纤厂</span></strong></span><br></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">一座座无人工厂的诞生，让剩余的劳动力，要么涌向上游的创新研发端，要么流入是下游的营销销售端。过去一大群人挤在一条生产线上，一声不吭干一天的场景，一去不复返。当这一阶段普遍来临的时候，如果政府无法给与人民积极的就业辅助和引导的话，<span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(151, 72, 6);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">那全球化2.0，对很多人来说，其实是一场灾难。</strong></span>它将真正促成，富者恒富，贫者毫无价值的局面出现。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p><br></p><p><mp-miniprogram class="miniprogram_element" data-miniprogram-appid="wxc1fbc82fc5d8abf2" data-miniprogram-path="/pages/details/details?content_id=412402&type=audio2&utm_source=ewXa" data-miniprogram-nickname="格上财富学院" 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