新冠肺炎疫情对经济及保险业的影响分析
<div class="wx_rich_media_content" id="jsWxContainer"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-bottom: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section><section style="width: 2em;line-height: 1em;height: 1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">一</p></section><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(75, 171, 58);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">短期会带来不利影响，但不会改变我国经济稳中向好、长期向好的基本趋势</strong></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 8px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: dotted;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-color: rgb(203, 73, 55);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="color: rgb(14, 14, 14);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从我国2003年非典疫情的影响及应对来看，此次新冠肺炎疫情会对经济发展造成不利影响，但这种影响是暂时性的，政府会加大逆周期调节力度，以缓解对经济增长的冲击。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">疫情有望在短期内得到有效控制</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">新冠肺炎疫情发生后，党中央、国务院高度重视，习近平总书记多次对做好疫情防控工作作出重要指示，全国人民立即行动起来，形成了联防联治的防控疫情格局。对比2003年非典疫情的防控情况，本次疫情防控反应快、措施严、经验更丰富，疫情有望在短期内得到有效控制。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从疫情发生到采取严格隔离措施，非典疫情用了近5个月时间，而此次疫情只用了一个半月。非典疫情发生于2002年11月16日，并于2003年6月24日基本结束，疫情时间跨度约为8个月。2003年4月20日左右，全国开始全面实施严格隔离措施。自2019年12月8日武汉市发现最早的新型冠状病毒肺炎患者开始，2020年1月23日，武汉在春节前开始“封城”，全国各地陆续加强了对流动人员监控，并要求隔离观察。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">从采取严格隔离措施后的疫情发展情况来看，疫情发展变化一般会经历这样几个阶段：</strong></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);height: 1.2em;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: initial; color: rgb(75, 171, 58); font-size: 20px; display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.33em; height: 1.33em; line-height: 1.33em; margin-left: -0.666em; border-radius: 100%; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</section></section><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);width: 95%;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 5px;width: 94%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; box-sizing: border-box;">爆发期；</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);height: 1.2em;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: initial; color: rgb(75, 171, 58); font-size: 20px; display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.33em; height: 1.33em; line-height: 1.33em; margin-left: -0.666em; border-radius: 100%; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);width: 95%;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 5px;width: 94%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; box-sizing: border-box;">控制期，虽然新增病例很多，但增速开始下降；</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);height: 1.2em;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: initial; color: rgb(75, 171, 58); font-size: 20px; display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.33em; height: 1.33em; line-height: 1.33em; margin-left: -0.666em; border-radius: 100%; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);width: 95%;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 5px;width: 94%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; box-sizing: border-box;">缓和期，新增病例的绝对数开始下降；</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);height: 1.2em;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: initial; color: rgb(75, 171, 58); font-size: 20px; display: inline-block; float: left; width: 1.33em; height: 1.33em; line-height: 1.33em; margin-left: -0.666em; border-radius: 100%; text-align: center; box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">4</p></section><section style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(75, 171, 58);width: 95%;border-top-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-right-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);border-bottom-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-left: 5px;width: 94%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="clear: none; box-sizing: border-box;">结束期，新增病例数下降到两位数或个位数。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 2px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(192, 200, 209);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从非典疫情来看，在全国采取强制隔离措施9天后，日新增确诊病例的绝对数开始下降；2003年5月下旬，每日新增确诊病例数量降至两位数或个位数。2003年6月24日，世卫组织将北京从非典疫区名单中排除。从本次疫情来看，2020年1月25-29日，除湖北外，全国新增确诊增速基本在两位数以上（2020年1月26日为9.04%），属于爆发期。</p><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">2020年2月4-2月10日，除湖北外全国新增确诊病例已连续七天下降。<span style="text-indent: 2em;box-sizing: border-box;">2月以来，疑似病例转确诊比率（当日新增病例数/前一日疑似病例数）保持在10%-15%的水平。只要控制住了疑似病例的增幅，疫情防控就可期。进入2月份以来，疑似病例增幅与1月份相比，出现了大幅下降。总体来看，疫情基本进入了控制期。如果本次疫情接下来的发展与SARS的轨迹大体一致，在当前严格防控的措施下，有望在2020年2月中旬左右进入缓和期，在2020年3月初左右进入结束期。</span></p></section></section></section><section style="font-size: 16px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">本报告中全国数据不包括港澳台地区</span><br></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">短期内对经济带来较大不利影响</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从非典疫情的影响来看，主要发生在二季度，但持续时间较短。2003年第二季度GDP增速为全年最低，为7.9%，分别比第一季度、第三季度、第四季度低2个百分点、1.7个百分点和2个百分点。如果按照第一季度的增速测算，二季度GDP受影响的规模为583.88亿元（2002年第二季度GDP为29194.8亿元）。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">本次新冠肺炎疫情的影响面广、影响力大。2003年非典患者主要集中在广东、北京、河北、山西、内蒙古五个省市，其余城市患病者均在40例以下。而本次肺炎疫情，截至2月10日24时，除了湖北省为重点疫区之外，浙江、广东、河南等超过20省市区的累计确诊病例超100例。本次肺炎疫情确诊病例和死亡病例数均超过非典，且仍处于上升期。截至2月10日24时，已累计报告确诊病例42638例，累计死亡病例1016例，远超非典时期我国境内累计确诊5327例、死亡349例的情况，并且还在继续增加。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">世界卫生组织（WHO）突发事件委员会决定将本次疫情确认为“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件”，虽然WHO建议没有必要采取限制国际人员流动的措施，不推荐限制贸易的措施，但是一些国家已经分别采取了限制措施，并提升了风险等级。这对经济产生较大的不利影响，据测算，仅短短7天春节假期，餐饮零售、旅游、文化娱乐三个行业直接经济损失就超过1万亿，还不包括交通运输、房地产等其他行业。延期复工对工业生产，特别是对中小民营企业带来了更大影响。这些民营企业能否度过难关，不仅对经济增长而且对就业都会带来较大影响。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">会带来财政政策与货币政策的变化</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">今年是全面建成小康社会和“十三五”规划收官之年。中央经济工作会议强调，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，坚持稳字当头，全面做好“六稳”工作。并提出，积极的财政政策要大力提质增效，更加注重结构调整；稳健的货币政策要灵活适度，保持流动性合理充裕，货币信贷、社会融资规模增长同经济发展相适应，降低社会融资成本。财政政策和货币政策将根据中央经济工作会议精神，增强应对疫情冲击的针对性、灵活性。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 2px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(192, 200, 209);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">●</span><span style="color: rgb(17, 112, 243);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.3px;box-sizing: border-box;">财政政策方面</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.3px;box-sizing: border-box;">，会更加积极。一是提高赤字率。减税降费叠加疫情冲击的影响下，税收收入仍有下行压力。财政以收定支情况下，客观上需要扩大赤字率来平衡财政。二是专项债规模适度提高。2020年1月起专项债加速发行，截至1月30日已经发行的专项债规模超过7000亿元。考虑疫情的负面影响，专项债规模可能适度提高。三是税收政策支持，如调降和推迟企业的税费上缴。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">● 货币政策方面</span></strong>，将在适度的基础上，进一步增强灵活性，通过下调存款准备金率、加大流动性投放力度、降低实体经济融资成本等方式支持经济发展。人民银行等五部门已联合发文，出台了30条举措，进一步强化金融支持疫情防控工作。对于受疫情影响较大的行业，货币政策可能配合财政对相关行业实施阶段性贷款贴息政策。针对疫情重灾区和遭受疫情影响较大的市县可能会给予定向信贷支持。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">● 流动性投放方面</span></strong>，也加大了力度。2020年1月6日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点（不含财务公司、金融租赁公司和汽车金融公司），人民银行称，此次全面降准将释放长期资金8000多亿元。2020年2月3日人民银行开展1.2万亿元公开市场逆回购操作投放资金，银行体系整体流动性比去年同期多9000亿元。</p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">在各项政策的综合发力下，经济增长将在疫情之后得到逐步恢复，重回年初确定的目标区间。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-bottom: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section><section style="width: 2em;line-height: 1em;height: 1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">二</p></section><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(75, 171, 58);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">疫情对寿险业务的影响</strong></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">将大于对财险业务的影响</strong></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 8px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: dotted;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-color: rgb(203, 73, 55);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="color: rgb(14, 14, 14);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">减少人员聚集是防止疫情扩散的重要举措，各地政府纷纷要求延期复工，银保监会也通知严禁举行晨会、夕会、宣讲会、培训等聚集性活动。目前，保险业务发展以线下销售为主，特别是寿险和健康险。严重疫情使得业务发展受到明显压抑。寿险消费具有一定的潜在性，需要激发才能得到释放，而客户对财产保障的意识更强，财险消费具有一定的刚性，总体来看，疫情对寿险发展的影响较大。从2003年非典疫情的影响来看，寿险保费增速有所下滑，2003年1-5月寿险单月保费增速同比分别增长64.1%、35.7%、22.0%、34.8%和19.8%，同比增速出现了全面下滑（具体见表1）。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center;font-size: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">表1非典期间保费增速下滑情况</strong></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="vertical-align: middle;display: inline-block;line-height: 0;width: 70%;height: auto;box-sizing: border-box;"><span class="wxart_image" wx-style="display:inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"></span></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;border-width: 2px;border-style: dotted;border-color: rgb(192, 200, 209);padding: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="padding-right: 10px;padding-left: 10px;letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">●</span><span style="color: rgb(17, 112, 243);box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.3px;box-sizing: border-box;">健康险业务方面，</span></strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.3px;box-sizing: border-box;">人民对健康、医疗以及疫情防护等方面的关注和需求明显提升，与疫情防控、医疗等有关的相关险种、健康险业务将迎来较好的发展契机。2003年非典疫情流行的第二季度，健康险业务同比增长221.38%，远高于第一、三、四季度同比增长69.64%、83.94%、49.61%的水平。同时，理赔支出将明显增加。监管部门要求保险机构适当扩展保险责任，支持寿险公司在风险可控的前提下，在疾病险、医疗险等产品中针对新冠肺炎客户取消等待期(观察期)、免赔额、定点医院等限制，支持将意外险、疾病险等产品的保险责任范围扩展至新冠肺炎等。</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">● </span></strong><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">销售队伍建设方面</strong></span>，面临着增员难、考核难、管理难的困境。营销员展业受阻，降低了营销员的收入，即便取消了考核脱落的要求，但还是增加了队伍的不稳定性。新营销员的招聘、面试、录用等环节都会受阻，使得代理人团队的人数在一定程度上受到影响。由于取消了晨会、夕会等，使得公司对营销员激励、业务监督以及教育培训等方面的管理弱化，队伍素质和展业品质难以提升。</p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;">● </span></strong><span style="color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">发展模式方面</strong></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;">，传统保险销售与服务模式均受到很大程度冲击，在当前以“宅”为主的消费场景下，以新技术新渠道新方式主导的线上非接触式的销售服务方式优势凸显，并将加速促进行业转型升级进程，围绕客户现实需求，以科技提升产品、服务、销售的灵活性、敏捷性、精准性等，也将成为市场主体改革变革的重要方向；新客户拓展或将变得更为困难，围绕既有客户维系，以提升续保、拓展服务价值链为主的客户经营工作将更受重视。</span></p></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="text-align: center;margin: 10px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-bottom: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section><section style="width: 2em;line-height: 1em;height: 1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">三</p></section><section style="width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="border-top: 0.65em solid rgb(75, 171, 58);border-left: 1em solid transparent !important;border-right: 1em solid transparent !important;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: middle;width: 20%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-top: 0.5em;margin-bottom: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="border-top: 1px dashed rgb(171, 171, 171);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;color: rgb(75, 171, 58);font-size: 18px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">保险资金运用承压</strong></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding: 5px;border-width: 0px;border-radius: 8px;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-style: dotted;border-width: 1px;border-radius: 5px;border-color: rgb(203, 73, 55);overflow: hidden;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 15px 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="color: rgb(14, 14, 14);letter-spacing: 0px;line-height: 1.6;padding-right: 15px;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">疫情发生以来，国内外股市均出现较大幅度下跌，债券收益率出现快速下行，保险资金运用将面临较大配置压力。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">1</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">利率将在低位震荡</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">2003年非典期间，国债收益率波动较大。疫情爆发前，国债收益率的高点不断抬升，最高抬升至2003年4月24日的3.4552%。疫情爆发后，国债收益率快速下行，10年期国债收益率由2003年4月24日的3.4552%阶段高点快速下行至2003年5月16日的2.6648%，期间下行幅度高达80bp，之后维持较低利率水平至2003年6月底。非典疫情结束阶段，十年期国债收益率又有所抬升，分别在2003年7月3日和7月9日触及阶段新高，但之后又回落到较低水平。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">国债利率受此次武汉疫情影响，中枢仍会较之前有所下行，十年期国债收益率预计再次跌破3%整数关口，LPR利率从2019年8月份至今已经下行18bp，2019年至今已经降准四次，且全球主要央行延续扩表的情况下，国内利率在小幅下探之后预计会在低位震荡。利率下行将对实现全年利润目标带来更大的挑战。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">2</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">固定收益配置难度加大</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">受疫情影响，企业债券等可能推迟发行，基础设施等各种基建项目预计将延后开工，非标业务的尽职调查等也将受到严重影响，预计会放缓资产配置进度，并将对保险资金实现全年收益目标带来较大压力。略宽松的货币环境将导致基础设施行业资金供过于求的现状进一步加剧，保险资金另类投资面临的市场环境更加严峻。疫情还将导致企业的流动性风险及信用风险有所加剧，疫情较严重区域的城投企业的财务风险将有所提高。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%; margin-left: 0%; font-size: 12px; box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;padding-right: 0.2em;padding-top: 0.5em;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3em;height: 3em;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);padding: 3px;border-radius: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="width: 100%;height: 100%;border-radius: 100%;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);text-align: center;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 22px;line-height: 1.4;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;">3</p></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 6px;height: 6px;border-radius: 100%;margin-left: -0.5em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section><section style="display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 3px;height: 3px;border-radius: 100%;margin-top: -0.22em;margin-left: 0.1em;background-color: rgb(75, 171, 58);box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="line-height: 0;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);width: 0px;"><svg viewBox="0 0 1 1" style="vertical-align:top;"><text>_</text></svg></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 16px;border-width: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;border-left: 2px dashed rgb(160, 160, 160);border-bottom-left-radius: 0px;padding-left: 10px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: -30px 0% 10px;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="display: inline-block;width: 100%;vertical-align: top;padding-left: 15px;box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-left: 0%;text-align: center;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="text-align: justify;box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">A股市场会加大波动</strong></p></section></section></section></section><section style="margin-right: 0%;margin-bottom: 20px;margin-left: 0%;box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">疫情的发展是决定市场走势的关键，A股市场短期内会出现较为明显价格波动。从非典疫情对A股的影响来看，上证综指呈现W型走势。本次疫情使A股市场春节休假前出现了一定的下跌，但跌幅不足（沪深300跌幅略超4%，创业板跌幅不足3%），春节期间疫情扩散速度快于春节前的普遍预期，2020年2月3日A股市场大跌近8%,市场恐慌情绪基本释放，2020年2月4日A股三大股指翻红。如果疫情没有超出市场预期的进一步恶化，跌幅应该有限。当然，市场的预期和情绪波动在短期走势中起到相当大的作用，不排除杀跌和抄底的投资者同时博弈，导致市场出现较为剧烈的上下波动，并拉长波动时间。</p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="text-indent: 2em; box-sizing: border-box;">从中期的角度，疫情的走势将显著影响市场走势。从2019年初开始，本轮A股市场的行情体现出较强的结构性特征。经济增长疲弱和政策宽松的结合可能长期化和进一步显性化，A股的结构性行情可能得到进一步强化。从长期看，本次疫情属于事件性扰动，其延续时间以季度计，不会影响中国经济转型与升级发展，也不会影响资本市场的整体发展方向。总体来看，此次疫情使资本市场走势更加复杂，对权益投资带来了极大挑战。</p></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;" powered-by="xiumi.us"><p style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; text-align: right;">中国人寿金融研究院</p></section></section><br>转载声明：本文转载自「国寿研究声」，搜索「功能介绍中国人寿金融研究院研究成果共享平台」即可关注</div><p></p>
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